The Best Days for Outdoor Weddings, According to Climate Data

Rain or shine, the wedding must go on. One of the most charming settings to exchange vows is the great outdoors. A botanical garden, a mountain landscape, or a beach at sunset — this is what dreams are made of. But a forecast of rain or a heatwave can quickly turn that dream into a bridal headache. So which days are the least risky for an outdoor wedding? Shane Co. analyzed three decades of U.S. climate data to find out. 

Using the National Weather Service (NOAA), we collected daily normal climate data (1991-2020) to find the average daily precipitation (in inches) and the average daily temperature (°F) for every day of the calendar year in 50 of America’s largest cities. Based on which days historically had the least chance of precipitation and the most ideal temperature (closest to 72°F), we were able to determine the optimal day and month for an outdoor wedding in each city. 

The Ideal Day for an Outdoor Wedding in 50 Cities

The results are in, and the best month overall for an outdoor wedding is September, according to climate data. Out of the 50 cities analyzed, the largest number of cities (12) had optimal outdoor wedding dates in September, the majority of which are located in the South. Cities like Dallas, Texas; Memphis, Tennessee; and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, each have ideal wedding dates in late September (22nd-30th) when, historically, the chances of rain are lowest and wedding-goers can beat the heat (71-74°F). 

Alternatively, engaged couples may want to avoid the month of December for their outdoor nuptials. Across all 50 U.S. cities, the month of December averages 0.14 inches of precipitation, and the average temperature sits around 38°F. We can’t think of anything more unpleasant for wedding guests than a frigid (and rainy) outdoor event.

Where It’s Likely to Rain on Your Wedding Day

So where are you most likely to see rain showers on your wedding day? According to average daily precipitation data, Miami, Florida (0.18 inches) and New Orleans, Louisiana (0.17 inches) are the two most likely cities for a rainy wedding day, which makes sense given the average annual humidity in the two cities ranges between 73 and 76%. One other Florida city, Jacksonville, and two cities in Tennessee (Memphis and Nashville) also land on this list, with average daily precipitation between 0.14 and 0.15 inches. 

The Best & Worst Months for an Outdoor Wedding

We’ve compiled our full data study for all 50 U.S. cities analyzed into the interactive data table below. Search for the city you call home or click on the heading of each column to sort by that category!

Closing Thoughts

Legend has it that rain on your wedding day signifies good luck for your marriage, so even if you have some unexpected weather on your big day, it’s a comfort to know there’s a silver lining. Plus, a rainbow makes for a killer backdrop in your wedding photos! 
From wedding traditions to bridal jewelry, check out our wedding checklist to make sure you’re prepped and ready for your upcoming nuptials!